SEC Expansion

So it appears that last years conference expansion-fest-o-rama was not entirely over.

What started as some light chatter on the Internet mid-week has by now exploded into almost certainty: Texas A&M is leaving the Big 12 to join the SEC. And as a hardcore SEC football fan, I'm super excited by this idea. Texas A&M would be a great addition to the conference, and I look forward to regular Auburn-Texas A&M matchups.

But they also need to temper themselves for a reality: it will take them awhile to get competitive. Let's face it: the Big 12 is weak as water. There are only two teams that could make the jump from the Big 12 to the SEC and be immediately competitive for the conference championship, and those teams are Texas and Oklahoma.

Texas A&M joining the SEC will be somewhat analogous to South Carolina joining the SEC in 1992. It took them 20 years to become competitive in the conference. Now, to be sure, A&M is nowhere near as mediocre as South Carolina was, and they have much better access to local recruits that South Carolina did, but I still feel they're looking at at least a decade of being on the receiving end of beatdowns from the conference power schools (Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, Florida, South Carolina, and maybe Tennessee and Georgia depending on the year) before they have the opportunity contend for the crown. Sure, they'll win some games. There will be some upsets. They'll go 7-5 or 8-4 sometimes. But building up to power school status in this conference takes time, good coaching and solid recruiting. Just ask Arkansas and South Carolina.

So welcome home Texas A&M. Congratulations on doing what you should have done last year and getting out from under Texas's shadow.

But, this leaves the SEC at an unbalanced 13 teams. I don't see this as being a good arrangement. So the SEC will expand further. Lots of potential teams have been discussed:

• Florida State. This is the big one that's being discussed. I personally don't think it's likely. First, other than being geographically convenient, it doesn't really add anything to the conference as far as TV markets. Florida will also veto this because they don't want to compete against them in recruiting in the same conference. This same reasoning goes for Clemson and Georgia Tech as well. 
• Virginia Tech. This would give access to the Virginia TV markets. VT is a pretty competitive team and could step into the East and be a reasonably-competitive mid-tier team immediately, taking only a few years to come up to top-flight status. But they don't seem to be interested, and in fact may be hoping that one of the other ACC power teams gets poached so that they can dominate the ACC.
• Missouri. Another Big 12 team that may want to get out of the Texas black hole. They would give access to the St. Louis and Kansas City TV markets, which would be a plus. But on the downside would be horribly inconvenient geographically.
• West Virginia. Has been competitive and could be a mid-tier team easily. Would be a good geographic and cultural fit, but doesn't really add anything as far as TV markets go.
• Louisville. No chance. Not competitive at all, and would be in the same teir as Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Adds no major TV markets.
• NC State or UNC. Neither has a history of being very competitive, and UNC is in trouble with the NCAA right now. On the plus side, either would add the TV markets in Charlotte.

Now, having said that, my ideal additions would be Texas A&M in the West, and Georgia Tech in the east. It won't happen - Georgia Tech likely has no interest in the conference they left in the 70s and Georgia would veto it anyways, not to mention it really doesn't add the Atlanta TV market since Georgia does that already, but it would be fun nonetheless.